Globalities – Helena Cobban explores today's changing world

The War on Iran: Notes on Day 14

Helena CobbanMarch 14, 2026March 14, 2026Antiwar, China, Diplomacy, Global balance, Iran, Israel, U.S. militaryLeave a comment

Some careful analysts have been declaring a victory for Iran for several days already. Pres. Trump and Poppinjay Pete (Hegseth) have been declaring victory for the U.S. My judgment is closer to that of the “victory for Iran” people– although (1) the war is by no means over yet, and (2) the cost imposed on the peoples of Iran, Lebanon, and Palestine is, and will continue to be, horrendous. Here anyway, are my four current key takeaways, with more explanation below:

The Islamic Republic of Iran has been holding up well. Its central decisionmaking structure remains in place and it’s been pursuing a smart, long-prepared plan for dealing with this assault.
The stakes in this contest are global. The IRI deliberately globalized it from the first hours. China has an irreplaceable role in any termination or substantial de-escalation of the conflict. This affects the entire balance of geopolitics.
The planning, execution, and nature of the Israeli-U.S. assault on Iran have been closely tied to (grown out of) the Abraham Accords. The failure of the assault should now lead to the end of those accords.
The choices that GCC leaders make over the coming days will be crucial.

Let’s take these one at a time:

War on Iran: Global consequences and off-ramps we should support

Helena CobbanMarch 6, 2026March 6, 2026Antiwar, China, Diplomacy, Iran, Israel, U.S. military, United Nations1 Comment

(The photo shows Trump being prayed over in the White House yesterday by a group of evangelical pastors.)

Today is Day 7 of this mass-murdering, mass-destruction project that Pres. Donald Trump named “Operation Epic Fury” (OEF). Already, the dimensions of many of its (quite foreseeable, and by many people clearly foreseen) consequences are becoming evident.

Most crucially, as of today, these:

The Iranians’ governance and command structure has survived, despite “decapitation” strikes since its first hours that killed Supreme Leader Khamene’i and dozens of top commanders.
Iranian forces continue, in response to OEF, to undertake stand-off attacks that seem well aimed and well coordinated and have in many cases inflicted real damage on their intended (military and economic) targets.
Israel has exploited this situation of war, impunity, and lawlessness to (a) reimpose its super-tight siege on the two million people of Gaza, (b) sharply escalate its bombings of Lebanon and peremptorily order the ethnic cleansing of South Lebanon as well as Beirut’s densely populated southern suburbs, and (c) continue to oppress and dispossess Indigenous inhabitants of both the West Bank and Syria.
The Iranians’ response to OEF has included attacks not just on Israeli and U.S. military bases across West Asia but also on key economic facilities in Arab Gulf countries.
Through those latter attacks and by closing the Straits of Hormuz to shipping from OEF-associated countries, Tehran has delivered a huge blow to the global economy and especially to the Gulf Arab states that have been major bankrollers of Trumpian projects worldwide.

There are still, as of now, no signs of any imminent collapse of Iran’s command/governance structure. And meanwhile, all around the world a chorus of questions is growing louder around two key issues, either of which could rapidly increase the pressure on Washington to end the war. The first such pressure-point is the durability of U.S. stockpiles of key missile-defense and air-defense munitions needed to fend off Iran’s continuing volleys of low-cost drones and high-altitude missiles. The second is the degree, speed and temporal extent of the damage that the war inflicts on the global economy– a process that has already started.

No to war on Iran! No to U.S. hegemony!

Helena CobbanFebruary 21, 2026February 21, 2026Antiwar, Iran, Israel, Nuclear weapons, U.S. policy

Most people in the United States and other Western nations seem to consider it “normal”, or anyway unremarkable, that the U.S. should, on its own, have the authority to control and police the nuclear-enrichment projects of another country far away.

It is not.

There are a number of high-level UN bodies, with the Security Council at their apex, that have that authority. In 2015, the United States, the other four veto-wielding permanent members of the Security Council, and Germany jointly negotiated an arrangement with Iran that sought to address concerns that some countries had had about Iran’s nuclear-enrichment program. The agreement they reached, the “JCPOA”, was immediately endorsed by the Security Council.

In 2018, Pres. Donald Trump unilaterally pulled out of the JCPOA and restored many of the unilateral U.S. economic sanctions on Iran that had earlier been lifted under its terms. The JCPOA’s other (non-Iran) signatories expressed mild concern at Trump’s move, but took no other action. (When Joe Biden became president he took some inconsequential steps to rejoin the agreement, then abandoned the project.)

The U.S.-Israeli plot against Iran: The record of the past 15 months

Helena CobbanFebruary 20, 2026February 20, 2026China, Diplomacy, Global balance, Iran, Israel, U.S. military

The Trump administration has now ordered a second Carrier Strike Group to join the one that is already sailing in the Gulf of Oman, close to Iran, and has deployed large amounts of military equipment (both offensive and defensive) to U.S. bases across West Asia, and to Israel. Trump’s envoys have now had two rounds of “proximity talks” with Iranian counterparts this month, discussing new limitations on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.

Both sides have said those talks went fairly well. But Washington now expects Tehran to present more detailed plans by March 3 and Trump has warned that if Iran fails to reach a satisfactory agreement, then it will face very serious military consequences.

Some analysts have gauged the probability of an all-out war at “80 to 90 percent.” Such numbers are still wildly speculative (and personally I would peg them far lower than that.) But in assessing the possibility of any major military engagement between the U.S.-Israeli alliance and Iran it is crucial also to assess the range of outcomes and knock-on effects that we can plausibly foresee from any such conflict, at a number of different levels:

within the immediate theater of the conflict (Iran, the Gulf region)
in the Mashreq (Levant) region which has Israel at its geographic core, and specifically, on Israel’s ability to continue imposing its diktat on its neighbors in the region, and
on the stability and integrity of the global system as a whole.

In this essay, I shall review the record of the project to weaken or topple Iran’s current, 47-year-long system of governance that the Trumpists and the government of Israel have jointly pursued in the period since Trump’s victory in the 2024 election, and identify six key takeaways we can take from that review.

In a later essay, I plan to build on this analysis to provide a few preliminary guidelines for what the effects of any new Trump-Israel assault on Iran might be, at the three levels identified above.

Tracking the Trump-Israel plot against Iran

U.S. sanctions are terrorism on an industrial scale

Helena CobbanJanuary 22, 2026January 23, 2026Global economy, Iran, Sanctions, U.S. policy

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blurted out an important truth at the Davos conference, January 20. He described the way Washington has wielded the weapon of economic sanctions against Iran as “economic statecraft” crowing that:

It’s worked because in December, their economy collapsed. We saw a major bank go under. The central bank has started to print money. There is a dollar shortage. They are not able to get imports, and this is why the people took to the streets… Things are moving in a very positive way here.

Journalism prof Azadeh Moaveni gave a detailed account in this powerful piece in the Financial Times January 17, of how Bessent and the rest of Trump’s team had tightened the screws on the Iranian economy starting back last March:

Trump’s Iran backdown

Helena CobbanJanuary 16, 2026January 17, 2026Iran, Israel, Persian Gulf, U.S. policy2 Comments

There was Trump, on Tuesday, shouting all over the internet, “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! … HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA!!! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP.” And there was Trump just a day later saying, “We’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping — it’s stopped — it’s stopping… And there’s no plan for executions, or an execution, or execution — so I’ve been told that on good authority.”

He was racing backward from the incendiary regime-change rhetoric of the previous day.

This was– for now, anyway– a clear case of “TACO, Iran-style”, to borrow the FT’s great acronym for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” Read on to see where I think this leaves us all now. But first, a bit of essential background.

Back in late June, in the aftermath of the “12-day War” that the U.S.-Israeli axis launched jointly against Iran June 13, I made a number of judgments, and shared some of them here and here. In the first of those essays, I judged that the reason that war ended so (relatively) swiftly and cleanly was that by June 24-25 both Israel and Iran found themselves locked in a “mutually hurting stalemate.” It was most certainly not any kind of “cakewalk” for the U.S.-Israel axis, and it certainly did not result in the unassailable U.S. win that Pres. Trump hurried to present it as.

Why a set of treaties from 1648 CE is more important than ever

Helena CobbanJanuary 5, 2026January 6, 2026Diplomacy, Europe, Global governance, U.S. policy, United Nations

If you’ve never learned about the 1648 Peace of Westphalia, then now is an excellent time to do so. This set of treaties, agreed to by the leaders of more 100 little European statelets and dukedoms in an era in which the modern-style “nation state” was only just emerging, laid the ground rules for the international state system that has existed until today. Its core principle was the sovereign independence and equal standing of all states in the system.

That principle, as extended to and embraced by all the 193 states in today’s international system, lies at the heart of the Charter of the United Nations, as adopted in San Francisco in 1945. In Article 2, the UN Charter states clearly that:

(1) The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members…

(4) All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.

As we know, in the 80 years since 1945 many states have violated these principles of the Charter (and many others.) But the action the U.S. government took on January 3, sending military forces to violently blast their way into the home of the head of another sovereign state and to snatch him and his wife and take them to U.S. territory on a flimsy judicial pretext, has been among the most egregious and the most threatening to today’s whole system of international law.

The long marriage of financial speculation, settler colonialism, and savagery

Helena CobbanDecember 12, 2025December 12, 2025Europe, Global economy, Indian Ocean, Settler colonialism, Zionism

I’ve been reading Hamid Dabashi’s thought-provoking new book After Savagery: Gaza, Genocide, and the Illusion of Western Civilization. It is a very useful documentation of, and reflection upon, the extreme savagery of Israel’s (still-ongoing) genocide in Gaza and also, importantly, what the very active support that many “Western” nations have given to this genocide tells us about the culture or “civilization” of the West. Throughout the book, Dabashi provides long excerpts from both the poignant “resignation letter” on Gaza that the former UN human rights official Craig Mokhiber penned to his UN bosses in late October 2023, and Sven Lindqvist’s landmark 1992 book ‘Exterminate All the Brutes’: One Man’s Odyssey into the Heart of Darkness…

I heartily recommend that everyone read Dabashi’s book, but I have a couple of quibbles. One is just to note that we are by no means yet “After” the savagery of Israel’s genocide in Gaza. If I were publishing the book I would have urged another title, such as In a Time of Savagery… I have also seen news of a book by Pankaj Mishra titled The World After Gaza, which has received mixed notices. But the world is decidedly not yet “after” Gaza, or Israel’s pursuit of savagery therein!

I think what we can say at this point, even as Israel’s savagery in Gaza continues, is that the first two years of the genocide and the behavior of various world powers during those years have already provided humankind with a shockingly rich trove of evidence about the savagery of this Israeli government, of the Zionist political project of which it is a product– and of those “Western” and other powers that have actively aided the genocide.

And who know what more the coming months or years will reveal about these matters?

As the UN crumbles, what?

Helena CobbanNovember 21, 2025Diplomacy, Gaza, Global governance, U.S. policy, Uncategorized, United Nations

As someone born in the early 1950s, I have never known a world without the United Nations. But by adopting Security Council Resolution 2803 (text) on November 17, the 15 states that sit on the UN’s most authoritative body, the Security Council, have now knowingly given a green light to the genocidal American-Israeli assault on Gaza, in clear violation of all the norms and values on which the UN was founded.

Thirteen of those states (including four Muslim-majority nations) voted for the U.S.-presented resolution. China and Russia, either of which could have blocked it by wielding a veto, chose not to do so. It seems that all those 15 states are prepared to rip up the entire international “system” of which the UN is the linchpin, and to let the world crumble into a stew of “might-makes-right” anarchy.

Craig Mokhiber, the 30-year veteran of the UN’s human-rights system who resigned his post in late October 2023 when he accused the UN of having failed to prevent Israel’s already-underway genocide in Gaza, published a powerful and well-documented piece on Resolution 2803 on Mondoweiss November 19. It clearly laid out the many ways in which Resolution 2803 violated longstanding UN norms, including those enshrined in its 1945 Charter.

In a discussion with Ali Abunimah on the EI Livestream yesterday, Mokhiber developed his critique even further. He noted that Resn. 2803 gives Pres. Trump the sole authority, via his position as head of the grotesquely mis-named “Board of Peace”, to do anything he wants regarding the administration of Gaza. Mokhiber’s comment: “It’s not even colonial, it’s King Leopold-esque.” (That recalled the fact that during the grossly genocidal period of “Belgian” rule over the Congo, 1885-1908, that whole vast territory was being administered as the personal property of Belgium’s King Leopold II.)

How to deal with resisting Natives: The Kushner plan for Gaza

Helena CobbanNovember 14, 2025February 14, 2026Gaza, Settler colonialism, White empire

Suspected Mau Mau sympathizers rounded up by British in Kenya, 1952

Imagine that, in any century from the 15th century of the Common Era through the present, you’ve made all the plans for a long-distance settler-colonial project. (Bear with me a short while here…) You’ve done a lot of prep work. You’ve pulled together the means of financing this venture and sharing the risks involved, your mode of long-distance transportation, your teams of settlers and the means of protecting their armed encroachment onto a distant land… Finally, you’re ready. You embark your well-armed teams onto your boats and go to the distant land where you want to establish your colony. Ideally you’ve landed in a place with plenty of valuable natural resources, and upon arrival you immediately set out to establish your physical control over as much of the land and resources as you can.

Then, darn it, you discover: There were people in this land before you! They’ve been here for generations. They know all the ways of this ecosystem. They know how to optimize use of its resources, its waterways, and its other means of communication. They have long-established communities with good means of communicating, traveling, and trading across far distances. They have believed for many generations that this land and its resources belong to them. And as soon as they realize that your goal is not simply to trade with them but to seize control of the land and resources, they start to resist.

Very often, their resistance is dogged, fierce, and smart. So now, like any one of the scores of European organizers of long-distance settler-colonial projects before you, you have the dilemma of “What on earth shall we do with these Natives?”